S Anand

Reliance Infocomm, after launching their prepaid business in India, introduced an new scheme. Pay Rs 4,300, and get a mobile phone PLUS prepaid vouchers worth Rs 4,300. Effectively, you’re getting a mobile phone for free. The scheme made good financial sense for Reliance. With a million subscribers to this scheme, they could recover Rs 430 cr of their upfront capital investment and retire their debt. Besides, the Rs 4,300 would have normally been bought over a period of around three years by prepaid subscribers, making its present value around Rs 3,600, at an interest rate of 12%. Add to that the reduction in distribution cost due to bulk selling, and possibility of non-usage, etc… the economics might work out.

But after the scheme was launched, Reliance was puzzled. Why did the sale of their normal prepaid cards dip? Any new prepaid customers would obviously go in for the new scheme. But old prepaid customers would still need prepaid cards, and should have bought them from the dealers. The dealers should have come back to Reliance to stock up their prepaid cards. Why didn’t they?

What happened was, they hadn’t anticipated was the ingenious market. Many new customers didn’t need the full Rs 4,300 worth of talk-time. Spotting this need, dealers would repurchase these prepaid vouchers at a discount.

Dealer: “Look, if you don’t need the entire Rs 4,300 worth of vouchers, I’ll buy some of them back.”

Customer: “I just need Rs 1,000 of talk time. Can I return Rs 3,300 worth of vouchers and take Rs 3,300 from you?”

Dealer: “I’ll take Rs 3,300 worth of vouchers, but I’ll pay you only Rs 3,000.”

Customer: “Well, I’m effectively paying Rs 1,300 for a mobile phone plus Rs 1,000 worth of talk time. Sounds good!”

The dealer now has Rs 3,300 worth of vouchers. So he doesn’t go back to Reliance to restock. When regular prepaid customers come in for prepaid vouchers, he’d offer some from the repurchased stock. The customer benefits (lower cash payment), the dealer benefits (higher margins), and it’s only Reliance left wondering why the sales dropped.

Over my last few years as a consultant, I’ve seen many interesting ways in which markets have emerged where they shouldn’t have, creating havoc in pricing and scarcity. Fixed prices fluctuate, free goods acquire a value, and non-tradeable goods are traded. I’ll share a few of these examples over the next few weeks.

Once, a fan manufacturer asked us, We did an analysis and found that our wholesalers’ margins fluctuate. How could that happen, when we are fixing their buying and selling prices?

The manufacturer sells several popular fans. Their highest selling fan (call it HS), for instance, was sold to wholesalers at Rs 1,089, who would then sell it to retailers at Rs 1,100. No question of margin fluctuation.

I took a trip to Lohar Chawl, the wholesale fan market, to get to the bottom of this. After a few conversations in dingy warehourses, here’s what I discovered. Fans are bartered. Wholesalers keep as little cash and inventory on hand. Often, a retailer would order a fan (say X) not in stock. The wholesaler doesn’t want to lose the deal, and doesn’t have cash, but he would have some inventory of HS, since it’s such a high-selling fan. He goes to another wholesaler, and says,

“Give me some fan X, and I’ll give you some HS fans instead. You’ll be able to sell these HS fans fairly quickly anyway.”

“Why should I? Tell me your customers name and I’ll sell it to him myself, and make the profit.”

“Tell you what. I’ll give you my HS fans for Rs 1,079 instead of Rs 1,089. You’ll get a higher margin when you sell it.”

This is a routine matter in Lohar Chawl. If you don’t have a fan, barter it for another (often HS) at a discounted price. So the wholesaler’s margin would depend on how many fans they bought at a bartered price!

Poaching was another reason for the margin fluctuation. The manufacturer demarcated territories for each wholesaler, saying “You can sell the these 20 retailers, you can sell to those 18, and so on.” Ambitious wholesalers, or those with inventory to dump, would do a side deal with a retailer.

Look, your wholesaler charges Rs 1,100 for this fan. I’ll sell you this lot for Rs 1,095. And let’s keep it quiet.”

Yet another reason for margin fluctuation was smuggling. Sometimes, the wholesalers would be able to smuggle fans into Mumbai without paying octroi. And sometimes they wouldn’t.

The biggest lesson for me from this was, It’s bloody tough to restrict a free market. I’ll tell you more about this shortly.