Year: 2006

Dan cracked the final challenge of the Google Da Vinci Code Quest in 5 minutes. The top 10,000 get a cryptex to solve. (Photos)

Search engines rank their own sites better. Yahoo Answers ranks higher on Yahoo, but not on MSN or Google. Google Answers ranks high on Google, but not on Yahoo or MSN.

This is bias, but not necessarily evil. They may just be fooling themselves.

Even scientists, the genuinely objective ones, do this. As Feynman points out in Cargo Cult Science:

Millikan measured the charge on an electron by an experiment with falling oil drops, and got an answer which we now know not to be quite right. It’s a little bit off because he had the incorrect value for the viscosity of air. It’s interesting to look at the history of measurements of the charge of an electron, after Millikan. If you plot them as a function of time, you find that one is a little bit bigger than Millikan’s, and the next one’s a little bit bigger than that, and the next one’s a little bit bigger than that, until finally they settle down to a number which is higher.

Why didn’t they discover the new number was higher right away? It’s a thing that scientists are ashamed of – this history – because it’s apparent that people did things like this: When they got a number that was too high above Millikan’s, they thought something must be wrong – and they would look for and find a reason why something might be wrong. When they got a number close to Millikan’s value they didn’t look so hard. And so they eliminated the numbers that were too far off, and did other things like that.

But, (and this is the important part):

We’ve learned those tricks nowadays, and now we don’t have that kind of a disease. But this long history of learning how to not fool ourselves–of having utter scientific integrity — is, I’m sorry to say, something that we haven’t specifically included in any particular course that I know of. We just hope you’ve caught on by osmosis.

It’s not easy to catch on, by osmosis or otherwise.

Though Google Reader learns to share, I haven’t found it easy to see what others are reading. Even a Google search for shared lists reveals very few.

Google Notebook released. Would be more useful when they

• Add offline functionality
• Reduce the accesses to the server

Shared books at esnips.com. You can download the entire book. Authors include Jeffrey Archer, Fredrick Forsyth, Arthur Hailey, Erich Segal, Michael Crichton, J K Rowling, Terry Pratchett, etc.

People act on the spur of the moment, most of the time. So, as you can see from this example below, psychology can be more important than economics.

Senthil Mullainathan worked with a bank in South Africa that wanted to make more loans. A neoclassical economist would have offered simple counsel: lower the interest rate, and people will borrow more. Instead, the bank chose to investigate some contextual factors in the process of making its offer. It mailed letters to 70,000 previous borrowers saying, “Congratulations! You’re eligible for a special interest rate on a new loan.” But the interest rate was randomized on the letters: some got a low rate, others a high one. “It was done like a randomized clinical trial of a drug,” Mullainathan explains.

The bank also randomized several aspects of the letter. In one corner there was a photo-varied by gender and race-of a bank employee. Different types of tables, some simple, others complex, showed examples of loans. Some letters offered a chance to win a cell phone in a lottery if the customer came in to inquire about a loan. Some had deadlines. Randomizing these elements allowed Mullainathan to evaluate the effect of psychological factors as opposed to the things that economists care about, i.e., interest rates-and to quantify their effect on response in basis points.

“What we found stunned me,” he says. “We found that any one of these things had an effect equal to one to five percentage points of interest! A woman’s photo instead of a man’s increased demand among men by as much as dropping the interest rate five points!

Google launches Google Co-op, which lets you search deep content (and share deep content), and Google Trends, which is like Google Zeitgeist for your searches.